2018 Shangri-La Dialogue: De-escalation of Korean Peninsula conflict

Perhaps one of the most discussed issues of the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue is how to de-escalate the conflict in the Korean Peninsula. The second day of the event was also marked by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing that the much-anticipated June 12 Summit is back on, after being called off on May 24. 

The friction between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) intensified last year when the DPRK tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and boasted about their nuclear program. 

However, tensions were reduced in February 2018 when President Moon Jae-in invited the DPRK to participate in the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympic Games.

"Through serious dialogues, we’ve taken the first step towards denuclearization,” said ROK's Defense Minister Song Young-moo, in a plenary session at the dialogue. 

The Singapore Summit is preceded by a series of goodwill gestures on all sides: President Moon and chairman Kim's meeting at the demilitarized zone (DMZ), and the DPRK’s release of three U.S. prisoners ahead of the summit. 

However, analysts have expressed skepticism about whether both sides can reach an agreement on denuclearization.

"But from what I know and understand so far, their idea of denuclearization is so different. For the U.S., it's the denuclearization of the DPRK, for the DPRK, when they talk about denuclearization, it's always denuclearization of the whole peninsula -- which means the U.S. has to remove its (troops) from ROK,” said Sarah Teo, an associate research fellow at S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). 

While U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis has said that discussions of the removal of troops will not be on the June 12 agenda, he left the possibility open but contingent upon an improved security atmosphere.

However, Teo said that there are many ways the outcome of the summit could be seen as successful. She noted that a communication link between high level staffers in both these countries is unprecedented, and in itself a success in some way. 

Shawn Ho, another research fellow at RSIS expressed more optimism about the summit, and said that a trilateral summit between the U.S. and the DPRK and the ROK could follow on the heels of the Kim-Trump Summit. 

"China will also be watching developments very closely in order to decide its next course of action," he said, hinting at a four-way meeting for talks of denuclearization progress. 

"China is a major stakeholder regarding the future of the Korean Peninsula and major decisions regarding the peninsula will also require consultations with China."